Research

1. 

   The Spillover Effects of Prisoner Releases: Evidence from Ecuador

   Daniel Jaramillo

   2024

   Abstract PDF

   Do released offenders influence the criminal behavior of individuals in the neighborhoods they rejoin? Using a unique dataset on arrests, prison releases, and places of residence for the universe of men in Ecuador and exploiting a mass pardon in a difference-in-difference design, I find evidence that released offenders contribute to increased criminal activity among their neighbors. On average, one additional release leads to an increase of 0.85 arrests, excluding the released offenders themselves. First-time offenders account for 42% of this effect, with the primary mechanism being the spread of criminal behavior through peer and family networks. These peer effects are larger for defendants who served longer portions of their sentences, suggesting that time spent in prison may intensify criminal behavior. Finally, I show that access to job training programs during incarceration can help mitigate these effects.

2024

1. 

   Climate Change and Female Targeted Conflict

   Siwan Anderson, and Daniel Jaramillo

   2024

   Abstract PDF

   This paper tests whether climate change threatens to intensify gender-based violence by armed political actors. To causally identify the effects, we focus on geo-located panel data for Africa. Our outcomes of focus encompass direct killings, forced kidnappings, torture, and sexual violence. We find evidence that negative climate shocks exacerbate these measures of female-targeted civilian conflict. Our results do not seem to support an opportunity cost explanation for violence on behalf of male perpetrators. Instead, they appear most consistent with a behavioral response when negative climate shocks induce heightened aggressive reactions towards females. Indicators of societal female empowerment tend to mitigate this extreme gender-based violence exacerbated by climate change. This is in line with the notion that armed male actors engage in even more gender-based violence (induced by increased climate stress and vulnerability) in societies with gender-biased views and norms.

2023

1. 

   Gangs, Truce, and their Impact on Firms: Evidence from El Salvador

   Daniel Jaramillo, and Phillip Keefer

   2023

   Abstract PDF

   Can a decline in violence hinder economic activity? We combined administrative data and a novel victimization survey to evaluate the effects of a truce between the major gangs in El Salvador on firms’ behavior. Using firms’ exposure to gang activity, we found that firms more exposed to the truce reduced their number of employees by 2%, with the impact concentrated in micro and medium-sized firms. We did not find any effects on entry and exit. We argue that the truce increased gangs’ expected punishment more than the benefits generated from the reduction in violence..